Auto Industry Experiences Change
by Torrey H. Brinkley
Recent headlines have noted that the automobile industry in the USA is experiencing profund changes. Big pickup trucks and large SUV sales are plummeting, as customers search out newer economical alternatives in the wake of extremely high fuel prices. Overall sales of vehicles in the USA, will drop from a high of 19 million units a few years ago to perhaps under 15 million for 2008. Major manufacturers are wrestling with organizational and financial challenges to help turn a profit in these difficult times.
However, this is not the first time that the auto industry has had to shift gears, re-think their product mix, and move in a different direction from the recent successful past. Look at the historic record to see that automobile manufacturers rarely have had 5-6 consecutive years of continuous profits and smooth-sailing:
**DEPRESSED AUTO SALES. 1929 to 35 was the Great Depression, which wiped out many previously successful auto companies. Money was so tight, that average folk just could not afford to buy a car.
**BRIEF RECOVERY PERIOD. 1936-41 was a re-grouping period, when many cars became sleeker and more modern. Wealthier folk, who had money, did buy cars.
**TANKS NOT CARS. 1941-46, however, brought all auto manufacturing to a halt, as World War II saw U.S. car plants turned into war production facilities. The men went off to Europe & Asia to fight a bloody war, while women went to work on the assembly lines, wondering what the future of the world might be.
**PUTTING AMERICANS BACK ON THE ROAD. 1946-50 saw re-tooling of the postwar plants, with some new attempts to provide Americans with their first cars: Kaiser, Crosley, Frazier, Jeep, etc.
**TRYING TO GET MODERN.1951-54 saw the first major remodeling and restyling efforts, as cars became a major transportation mode west of the Mississippi, & especially on the West Coast.
***STYLED BOATS WITH FINS. 1955-61 brought bigger and wider cars, with growing tail fins, boat-sized bows, and even a few foreign entries coming on the scene (Volkswagen, Triumph, Mercedes, MG and Jaguar).
**FIRST SMALL CAR THRUST. 1960-64 saw some people desirous to get into a new batch of economy cars (not the greatest Falcons, Corvairs and Valiants) to combat the influx of foreign competition (which included Toyota, Datsun, Renault, Austin, Fiat, etc.). There was an explosion of choices in the marketplace, and gasoline cost just 25 to 30 cents a gallon.
**MUSCLE CAR ERA. 1964-72 brought out the horsepower wars, with Muscle Cars & Pony Cars from the domestic manufacturers, and an ever-expanding assortment of foreign sporty cars: Ferrari, Aston Martin, BMW, Pantera, Lancia, Alfa Romeo, Jensen, etc.)
**REGULATIONS & POLLUTION CONCERNS. 1973-78 however, spelled the end of the car fun, as government regulations and a gas crisis, slowed everything down, while anti-smog devices choked off performance. Sales of pickup trucks blossomed, but convertibles all but disappeared.
**GOING SMALLER AGAIN. 1977-85 saw a transition from larger rear wheel drive machines to smaller front wheel drive models. Minivans sprung on the scene to haul families and their gear. These two factors helped saved Chrysler Corporation from sure bankruptcy and closure. Station wagons, however (big, heavy and gas-guzzling), fell by the wayside.
**DESIRE FOR VALUE SEDANS. 1985-90 saw the rise of mid-size sedans in the marketplace (the Ford Taurus and Honda Accord led the way) .
**A NEW THIRST FOR POWER & LUXURY. 1990-2007 saw a return slowly of muscular V-8s for sporty cars, and the introduction of luxury Asian nameplates: Acura, Lexus and Infiniti. Convertibles also came back, and some new smaller station wagons got re-introduced. Sales were almost evenly distributed between pickup trucks, minivans, general sedans, sport utilities and sporty cars.
**SPORT UTILITIES ON THE ROAD. 1998-2004 brought the number of new sport utility vehicles up to 90 offerings. There was a movement away from USA products, with customers increasingly buying Asian and some European cars (and, to a lesser extent, their truck products).
**CROSSOVER POPULARITY. 2004-08 saw the introduction of new crossover SUVs every few months, a growing interest in hybrid powered vehicles, improvements in the Korean vehicles, and Toyota becoming a top sales leader, in car sales particularly.
**DOWN GO THE TRUCKS. 2008 is here, and perhaps this is the first time in 30 years that the top selling vehicles in our land will not be the Ford F-150 pickup truck, followed by the Chevy Silverado. Folk are also quickly dumping their big, heavy gas-guzzling used SUVs, as gasoline costs shoot up to $4 a gallon (the price that Europeans were paying 35 years ago).
Rumors are spreading that some major US manufacturers might soon drop some nameplates and unpopular models. Over the last 50 years, many US auto lines (or captive imports) have been cancelled (AMC, Avanti, Buick's Opel, Bricklin, MOPAR's Colt, DeLorean, DeSoto, Eagle, Edsel, Excalibur, Frazier, Geo, Hudson, Imperial, Merkur, Nash, Oldsmobile, Packard, Plymouth, Rambler, Shelby-Olds, Studebaker, Stutz,etc.), but only Olds and Plymouth had ever been major sales successes.
How can planning departments hope to stay ahead of the potential changes that might come on the world scene? Will there be much response to the Chinese entries into the North American marketplace, with very low quality/reliability ratings so far? Might India also try to export some of its very cheap offerings to the USA? Will ever-higher fuel prices drive most consumers to consider alternative fuel vehicles, or move them into mass transit alternatives? Is technology ever going to get us into above-ground personal transport, as opposed to highway-based vehicles?
Stay tuned; keep your hands on the wheel. Changes are inevitable
Friday, July 25, 2008
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Denver Hosts Democratic Convention
Democratic Convention in Denver in '08
by Torrey H. Brinkley
The Democrats rally in Denver, Colorado in the hot summer of '08. Politicians and their handlers bring a message of change to the mountain west, noting that this country represents more than just fancy elitist cities, with businessmen in 3-piece suits, cultural snobbery, majestic operas and artistic masterpieces. There are tall jagged mountains, harsh weather extremes, people working the soil, and rugged outdoorsmen. All this and more serves as a buffer "between" the powerful east coast interests and the glitz & glamor of the west coast experience.
Does this reflect today's scenario for the 2008 Democrats planning strategy for the fall election or was it the 1908 convention that chose to come to Denver, which only had 1/10 of its current population?
...Much of Denver's beautiful all-brick downtown district was built up in the period surounding the turn of the 20th century, with stately mansions and impressive government buildings on the major streets.
...Now, as we are fresh into the 21st century, we see another makeover of impressive high- rise towers for business and condo dwellers, nestled among our new sports and arts palaces, all in that same downtown Denver footprint. City leaders are also striving to move away the panhanders and give a fresh coat of paint for all the host of visitors to see.
Note some of the other eery similarities between these gatherings, some 100 years apart:
1) The Dems were putting forth a very eloquent and dynamic candidate in both eras: William Jennings Bryan and Barak Hussein Obama. Although Bryan was considered the most eloquent & dynamic orator of his time, historians note that he was not well-versed nor studied in any particular issue.
2) Each of the candidates seemed to be popular with the masses, with Bryan being called the Populist candidate, fighting against the wealthy East coast businessmen, & decrying the gold standard, while pushing for the silver interests & smaller businessmen to be heard. Obama has brought out scores of youthful supporters to huge crowds around the country, attacking big oil and big business. Yet, not all voters seem to be convinced, not in 1908, nor today.
3) Their speeches seem to be somewhat controversial. Bryan will be remembered in history as one opposing evolution ( the Scopes Monkey trial), while Obama has to keep dancing between words of his pastor, his wife and properly finding himself.
4) A religious tone had entered the debate. Bryan was almost considered a fiery preacher, while Obama has had to fire his pastor (Jeremiah Wright).
5) Democrats had suffered defeats in previous elections....and were hoping for better luck this time. Bryan was a nominee 2 times before. Recently, liberals have been very bitter about George Bush's last 2 election victories.
6) There were recent dramatic breakthroughs in technology. The automobile was very new to the transportation scene in 1908. So many other new inventions were coming on board (the radio and then the airplane, etc.).
...The world's scientific & technological advances today come at such a rapid pace. Even the thousands of miles of wiring necessary for setting up Denver's Pepsi Center is staggering, while individual folk with cell phones and i-Phones can personally shoot messages & photos around the world in seconds.
7) Candidates were from the midwest. Williams Jennings Bryan, Illinois born, actually stayed home during the 1908 convention because he wanted to do some farming back in Iowa. Obama is from Illinois, and earlier tried to help poor urban folk organize, so as not to lose labor jobs.
8) War had been fresh in people's minds to start the conventions. The Spanish American War took place in 1898, while the 9-11-2001 attack on New York City has spawned offensives in the Middle East (Afghanistan & Iraq) that America still fights right up to Convention gavel time.
9) There were some difficulties with Mexico back in 1908: violence, banditos, territorial issues, and shootings. Now, 100 years later, the USA still has major issues still to be resolved with Mexico (illegal immigration, drug trafficking, & people-smuggling).
10) The future of our country is somewhat in doubt, even with all its strength, glory and history. --Back in 1908, the USA was just 40 years removed from its bloody, divisive Civil War. We were just moving into the Industrial Age.
--Now in 2008, we look back some 40 years after the nasty, unruly Chicago Democractic Convention, bitterness of our Vietnam War participation, and the assasination of Bobby Kennedy.
Today we wonder how to confront the Islamic revolutionary movements, plus China's thrust into the global economy, and India's challenges in technology and science.Will this be a turning point election year for the USA, and will the Denver Convention be a time to remember?
Back in 1908 the only rowdy moments were caused by some occasional panhandlers and pickpockets. In 2008, scores of protesters plan to be in our city hoping their voices will be heard and controversy stirred.
The vote that came in after the 1908 convention did not produce a victory for Bryan or the Democrats.
-The popular Republican President, Teddy Roosevelt, had pushed for William H.Taft to be his successor......but that result spelled doom for the Republican party, soon quickly divided.
-Taft had really wanted to become Chief Justice of the Supreme Court (and he soon got his wish), after serving as U.S. President 1908-12.
-The Democrats finally gained the Presidency in 1912 with Woodrow Wilson, the progressive candidate, but our country was soon drawn in to World War I. Wilson preached peace, but he underestimated the sin and violence of mankind.
My father was proud of Williams Jennings Bryan, and for 40 years supported the college (in Tennesse) that bore his name. Interestingly, Bryan was later famous for speaking on the Chatauqua Circuit, where speakers and musicians fanned across the country in large open-air tents. One of the only remaining auditorium/tents for this association is in Boulder, CO, where we today can go and hear/see concerts and lecturers. Undoubtedly, Bryan spoke eloquently to the crowds here in Boulder 100 years ago, without the aid of microphones or any electronic aids.
In contrast, when Barak Obama gives his acceptance speech in the Denver Bronco's outdoor stadium, the acoustic challenges, Secret Service protection, parking & traffic nightmares, crowd control, and media coverage of the event is already giving planners severe headaches and potential ulcers.
And all this is just for political show!
by Torrey H. Brinkley
The Democrats rally in Denver, Colorado in the hot summer of '08. Politicians and their handlers bring a message of change to the mountain west, noting that this country represents more than just fancy elitist cities, with businessmen in 3-piece suits, cultural snobbery, majestic operas and artistic masterpieces. There are tall jagged mountains, harsh weather extremes, people working the soil, and rugged outdoorsmen. All this and more serves as a buffer "between" the powerful east coast interests and the glitz & glamor of the west coast experience.
Does this reflect today's scenario for the 2008 Democrats planning strategy for the fall election or was it the 1908 convention that chose to come to Denver, which only had 1/10 of its current population?
...Much of Denver's beautiful all-brick downtown district was built up in the period surounding the turn of the 20th century, with stately mansions and impressive government buildings on the major streets.
...Now, as we are fresh into the 21st century, we see another makeover of impressive high- rise towers for business and condo dwellers, nestled among our new sports and arts palaces, all in that same downtown Denver footprint. City leaders are also striving to move away the panhanders and give a fresh coat of paint for all the host of visitors to see.
Note some of the other eery similarities between these gatherings, some 100 years apart:
1) The Dems were putting forth a very eloquent and dynamic candidate in both eras: William Jennings Bryan and Barak Hussein Obama. Although Bryan was considered the most eloquent & dynamic orator of his time, historians note that he was not well-versed nor studied in any particular issue.
2) Each of the candidates seemed to be popular with the masses, with Bryan being called the Populist candidate, fighting against the wealthy East coast businessmen, & decrying the gold standard, while pushing for the silver interests & smaller businessmen to be heard. Obama has brought out scores of youthful supporters to huge crowds around the country, attacking big oil and big business. Yet, not all voters seem to be convinced, not in 1908, nor today.
3) Their speeches seem to be somewhat controversial. Bryan will be remembered in history as one opposing evolution ( the Scopes Monkey trial), while Obama has to keep dancing between words of his pastor, his wife and properly finding himself.
4) A religious tone had entered the debate. Bryan was almost considered a fiery preacher, while Obama has had to fire his pastor (Jeremiah Wright).
5) Democrats had suffered defeats in previous elections....and were hoping for better luck this time. Bryan was a nominee 2 times before. Recently, liberals have been very bitter about George Bush's last 2 election victories.
6) There were recent dramatic breakthroughs in technology. The automobile was very new to the transportation scene in 1908. So many other new inventions were coming on board (the radio and then the airplane, etc.).
...The world's scientific & technological advances today come at such a rapid pace. Even the thousands of miles of wiring necessary for setting up Denver's Pepsi Center is staggering, while individual folk with cell phones and i-Phones can personally shoot messages & photos around the world in seconds.
7) Candidates were from the midwest. Williams Jennings Bryan, Illinois born, actually stayed home during the 1908 convention because he wanted to do some farming back in Iowa. Obama is from Illinois, and earlier tried to help poor urban folk organize, so as not to lose labor jobs.
8) War had been fresh in people's minds to start the conventions. The Spanish American War took place in 1898, while the 9-11-2001 attack on New York City has spawned offensives in the Middle East (Afghanistan & Iraq) that America still fights right up to Convention gavel time.
9) There were some difficulties with Mexico back in 1908: violence, banditos, territorial issues, and shootings. Now, 100 years later, the USA still has major issues still to be resolved with Mexico (illegal immigration, drug trafficking, & people-smuggling).
10) The future of our country is somewhat in doubt, even with all its strength, glory and history. --Back in 1908, the USA was just 40 years removed from its bloody, divisive Civil War. We were just moving into the Industrial Age.
--Now in 2008, we look back some 40 years after the nasty, unruly Chicago Democractic Convention, bitterness of our Vietnam War participation, and the assasination of Bobby Kennedy.
Today we wonder how to confront the Islamic revolutionary movements, plus China's thrust into the global economy, and India's challenges in technology and science.Will this be a turning point election year for the USA, and will the Denver Convention be a time to remember?
Back in 1908 the only rowdy moments were caused by some occasional panhandlers and pickpockets. In 2008, scores of protesters plan to be in our city hoping their voices will be heard and controversy stirred.
The vote that came in after the 1908 convention did not produce a victory for Bryan or the Democrats.
-The popular Republican President, Teddy Roosevelt, had pushed for William H.Taft to be his successor......but that result spelled doom for the Republican party, soon quickly divided.
-Taft had really wanted to become Chief Justice of the Supreme Court (and he soon got his wish), after serving as U.S. President 1908-12.
-The Democrats finally gained the Presidency in 1912 with Woodrow Wilson, the progressive candidate, but our country was soon drawn in to World War I. Wilson preached peace, but he underestimated the sin and violence of mankind.
My father was proud of Williams Jennings Bryan, and for 40 years supported the college (in Tennesse) that bore his name. Interestingly, Bryan was later famous for speaking on the Chatauqua Circuit, where speakers and musicians fanned across the country in large open-air tents. One of the only remaining auditorium/tents for this association is in Boulder, CO, where we today can go and hear/see concerts and lecturers. Undoubtedly, Bryan spoke eloquently to the crowds here in Boulder 100 years ago, without the aid of microphones or any electronic aids.
In contrast, when Barak Obama gives his acceptance speech in the Denver Bronco's outdoor stadium, the acoustic challenges, Secret Service protection, parking & traffic nightmares, crowd control, and media coverage of the event is already giving planners severe headaches and potential ulcers.
And all this is just for political show!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)